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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime underperformers improving in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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