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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd