The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Surprising Championship Bid

Just eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him for missing a through-ball. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for the team's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Manager's Celebration of Elation

On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Title Contenders?

It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have piled up.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club that have just won a ten-match winning streak, they appear weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.

The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

  • Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
  • The winger may rediscover the force he was during his peak.
  • The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.

Ian Valencia
Ian Valencia

Tech enthusiast and writer exploring the intersection of logic and innovation in the Vegas Valley.